[blackbeaniedub] Watch this dumbfounding domestic price trend this year continues to be moderate

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Wang Qing, senior macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, forecast the CPI for Decem...

Wang Qing, senior macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, forecast the CPI for December 2022 to be around 1.8% year-over-year, up slightly from last month's 0.2%.

[blackbeaniedub] Watch this dumbfounding domestic price trend this year continues to be moderate

Pork and fresh vegetables, which are the most flexible in terms of food, have left the opposite market, and demand for pork prices has declined significantly, said Won Bin, chief economist at Minsung Bank. As for the price of fresh vegetables ahead of their expiration date, the price of fresh vegetables and fruits rose significantly around the middle and end of December this year. Food prices are expected to rise slightly in December 2022.

“In the non-food sector, from the end of November 2022, crude oil prices will continue to decline and electricity bills will also fall significantly. Home rental, tourism, entertainment, education, and services to families are slow, and consumer goods are subject to seasonal and epidemic demand, such as clothing and Only pharmaceutical prices are expected to rise, and both fast-moving consumer and durable goods will weaken.” said Wen Bin. In general, CPI is expected to decrease 0.1% MoM and increase YoY in December 2022.

Chen Li, chief economist and research director at Chuancai Securities, said he expects the CPI to be around 1.8% in December 2022.

"In terms of CPI, food prices will increase slightly in December 2022, coinciding with seasonal increases in non-food prices at the end of the year, and the CPI will increase slightly year-over-year, at around 1.9%." CITIC Chief Economist Ming Ming judged.

AVIC Fund chief economist Dan Haykin remains concerned about rising inflation abroad and believes inflation rates in Europe and the US have remained high in recent decades. Relatively speaking, China's general inflation situation is stable and inextricably linked to implementing prudent monetary and credit policies and avoiding "flood irrigation" in China.

Regarding PPI, Wen Bin predicted that in December 2022, the annual decline in PPI will be significantly reduced, international commodity prices will fluctuate, and crude oil prices will stabilize at a low level. Natural gas supply and demand conditions were better than expected, causing prices to fall. In the face of weakening inflationary pressures from imports and lack of demand, prices for domestic manufactured goods are generally weaker than international market prices.

"Upstream energy continued to decline in refined oil prices, weak coal prices, but a rebound in natural gas prices and a general rise in metal spot prices. Raw pig and feed prices plummeted," said Wen Bin. The PMI producer price index for December 2022 was still low at 49.0%. 50% is an important line, but it was higher in November 2022. PPI is expected to decline 0.1% MoM in December 2022, with the full-year decline expected to be significantly smaller at 0.2%.

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