After maintaining a relatively strong market across the board over the past two months, recent volatility in iron ore futures prices continued to correct the 2305 core iron ore futures contract on January 6 and 9, 2023.
Many analysts told "Securities Daily" reporters that soaring iron ore futures have been halted. This indicates that the mid-term rally is over. And according to the past trend, the price below 850 yuan per ton has become an acceptable cost. Prices in the market may have a little "wetness" above 850 yuan per ton, but iron ore futures prices are expected to be very volatile this year or a major ton.
According to industry insiders, judging by the trend of futures in recent years. Iron ore futures are stable. And price and futures growth is lower than overseas indices and derivatives. This provides a tool to reflect on the market. Discover domestic macro regulatory requirements and reasonable prices in advance. Look, the "stabilizer" function is clearly working. In the meantime, as the steel industry promotes, tight iron ore supply and demand and constraints on overseas resources may change in the future.
The growth rate of the internal market is lower than that of the external market.
From November 3 to December 30, 2022, iron ore prices will soar. The settlement price of core iron ore futures rose from 613 yuan/ton to 858 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 40% over the same period. $117.15/ton (950 yuan/ton) Qingdao Port 61.5% PB powder rose 33.9% to 854 yuan/ton (950 yuan/ton); 908 yuan/tonne), overall, the prices and growth rates of major iron ore futures contracts in the domestic market are lower than those of foreign indices and derivatives. And the futures price is also below the port's prime spot price.
Li Qi, a researcher from the Zhongyan Futures Investment Consulting Department, told reporters that the main reason contributing to the current rise in iron ore futures prices is the change in macro factors. This leads to a positive outlook for the market. “In early November of last year, markets were expecting the Fed to raise rates at a slower pace. And on international markets, iron ore prices have gone from falling to rising. With the domestic macroeconomic boom, policies such as real estate support overlay continued to be released, supporting the rise in iron ore prices.”
The National Development and Reform Commission announced on the 6th that it held a meeting to analyze and judge the market situation and iron ore prices due to the recent surge in iron ore prices after hearing opinions from industry experts. Market and Research Researcher on Partial Iron Ore Industry Reinforcement, Ore Price Regulation
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